270524
Irish Unity makes
economic sense
Last month a report by
the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) caught the headlines
with the claim that Irish Unity could cost
the South up to €20 billion annually. The analysis was quickly challenged
by other economists and last week those with different opinions had their
opportunity to address the Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the
Good Friday Agreement.
Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University was
joined by Seamus McGuinness a Research Professor at the Economic and
Social Research Institute (ESRI) and by Dr. Adele Bergin who is also an
Associate Research Professor at the ESRI.
Professor Doyle told the Committee that the IIEA
report “is wildly inaccurate as the report contained significant errors
and is based entirely on unreasonable assumptions. Consequently the figures
report not just the worst case scenario but they are completely wrong.” He
estimated that the initial cost to the South would be in the region of €2.5bn a
year. That is 2 percent of the current annual general government
expenditure.
John Doyle said that the IIEA report assumed that
public service salaries in the North would be immediately increased to levels
in the South in the first year. “This is unrealistic and unnecessary…
Convergence will happen over time and will involve negotiations with public
sector trade unions. Merging salary levels over 15 years – half the time taken
by Germany, would mean a cost of approximately €133m (£96.3m) in year one,
rising on average by that amount each year."
Professor Doyle also told the Committee
that the IIEA study excluded any analysis of economic growth following
unity. He said, “It assumes that with the same political system, EU
membership, policy framework, education system and tax regime, that NI would
not economically converge with the South. This is a very unlikely outcome. Why
would Belfast perform so much worse than Cork and Kerry with the same EU
access, policies, education and tax system?”
He also pointed out that the IIEA paper took no
account of the additional taxes that would be raised from public sector
workers.
Professor Séamus McGuinness and Dr Adele Burgin
from the ESRI made it clear that cost is not a barrier to Irish Unity. Irish
Unity can be an economic opportunity North and South. What is needed is proper
planning. The onus to lead that planning is with the government and the
Oireachtas but should involve experts, civil society and the public as a whole.
The Dublin government should establish a
cross-party Oireachtas committee empowered to produce a Green Paper. Such a
Green Paper would research all of the key issues crucial to a future prosperous
united Ireland. This would provide much needed information about what a future
united Ireland could look like and how it would work.
“We are running out of words to describe what is
happening in Gaza.” United Nations
Tuesday was a special day. For the first time the
Palestinian flag flew over Leinster House in Dublin following the announcement
by the government to formally recognise the State of Palestine. Tuesday’s move
was the next step in a process that will see the Palestinian Mission in Dublin
upgraded to an Embassy. The representative office of the Irish government in
Ramallah will be re-designated as an Embassy and its representative there will
become an Ambassador.
The Israeli government response to the decision by
the Irish state, Norway and Spain was to parade their three ambassadors in
front of the Israeli media while forcing them to watch an Israeli film about
October 7. Other Israeli Ministers also strongly rebuked the three governments
accusing them of aiding Hamas.
The reality of course is that Israel’s war aim of
destroying Hamas has failed. It was never achievable. What is needed is a peace
process. And ceasefires to facilitate this.
Why has Israel reacted so vehemently to the
recognition decision? Because it knows that the symbolism is hugely
significant. It will provide more diplomatic and international avenues to the
Palestinian people to hold Israel to account for its actions and it reinforces
the very real sense of international isolation that the Netanyahu government is
experiencing at this time. The decision by the Irish state, Norway and
Spain means that 146 United Nations member states out of 193 recognise the
state of Palestine. Seven European Union members have already taken this
step - Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and Cyprus. With
Spain and the Irish state joining this list that means that one third of the EU
states now formally recognise Palestinian statehood. Every effort must be made,
especially after the EU elections in June to get EU institutions to
recognise Palestine.
As the Netanyahu government comes
under increasing criticism the decision by the International Criminal Court to
seek arrest warrants for potential war crimes for Netanyahu and Defence
Minister Yoav Gallant, in addition to three Hamas leaders, has added to
Israel’s isolation. In addition, the United Nations International Court of
Justice last week ordered Israel to “immediately” halt its assault on
Rafah. Predictably Israel described the ICJ order as ‘false, outrageous
and disgusting.’
Since then the Israeli assault on
Rafah and other parts of the Gaza strip has continued. On Sunday Israel bombed
a tent city burning children and women alive. A bleak, desperate picture of the
situation was given in a briefing to the UN Security Council by Edem Wosornu, of the Office of the UN for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
She said: “To be frank, we are running out of words to describe what is
happening in Gaza. We have described it as a catastrophe, a nightmare, as hell
on earth. It is all of these, and worse.”
The next short term steps are
clear. The UN Secretary General António Guterres has confirmed that ICJ
decisions are binding. The Irish government must now use its international
diplomatic services to secure support for a resolution at the UN which demands
an end to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza; the release of all hostages –
including the 6,000 held by Israel – and immediate humanitarian access for the
mountain of aid that Israel has blocked from Gaza. It also needs to demand that
the EU institutions recognise the Palestinian state.
A Better World Is Needed.
For decades now I have argued that
the big central international struggle of our time is for people to have
democratic control over the decisions which affect their lives. The absence of
this basic right underpins conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine and other
parts of the world. It poisons relations between Ireland and Britain and
within Ireland although thankfully we have a process for dealing with that.
Painfully slow though it is, it is better than war. And such an approach is
clearly required in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. That
is what the United Nations should be advocating.
That means taking a stand for the emancipation of
humankind from all objectionable political bonds imposed from outside. Self
determination is our starting point. That means independence of nations,
starting with our own.
Despite Ireland’s historical neutrality, the Irish
government has incrementally moved to supporting the ‘security’ agenda of the
world’s bigger powers. That is why we need to enshrine a policy of positive
neutrality in the Irish Constitution. We should not join or form any
association with any military alliance and we should oppose the militarisation
of the European Union.
The United Nations needs reformed. It needs to be
more democratic, particularly the composition of the Security Council. Proper
weight must be given to the majority of the world’s people. They want peace.
They want an end to war everywhere. They want an end to world hunger. They want
everyone to have access to food, clean water, and an end to deaths from
treatable illnesses. They want an end to global warming and a focus on measures
to protect and enhance a clean healthy environment.
So international security needs to shift from a
purely militaristic agenda, which attacks democratic rights and civil
liberties. A security agenda which is based on repression and the promotion of
conservative right wing economic models favoured by the global elites is not going
to deliver true global security.
A
better world is possible. It is also needed. For all our local distractions we
need never to lose sight of that.
No comments:
Post a Comment