Are you listening to our voices, Micheál?
Micheál Martin’s ‘Shared Island Unit’ is perceived by some as a positive initiative encouraging debate on Irish Unity, even though he fails to even mention unity in any of his utterances. For others it is a distraction. A talking shop that is short on strategy and lacking in vision. A means of pretending to be doing something while in fact doing as little as possible. And a way of avoiding taking the big steps necessary to plan for a referendum on Unity, or mapping out what the shape of that new Ireland will be if the referendum succeeds.
My own view is that United Irelanders should engage positively
with An Taoiseach’ s Shared Island Unit but in full knowledge that it falls
very far short of what Micheál Martin should be doing as part of his
constitutional obligations and the imperatives of the Good Friday Agreement. In
fact An Taoiseach is wilfully involved in the politics of illusion. But that
should not come as a surprise to observers of his politics.
Despite Martin’s reluctance to be a persuader for Unity or to
plan for a unity referendum the debate around Irish Unity has been
intensifying. In recent weeks several important papers have been published by
influential academic institutions and by Ireland’s Future. All of them
highlight the need to plan for a referendum and to plan for Unity and that this
needs to commence now.
The Ulster University published ‘Deliberating
Constitutional Futures’ which examines the arguments around possible
constitutional futures, including a unity referendum. Two weeks ago The
Constitution Unit of University College London published an interim report from
its ‘Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of
Ireland.’
The report addresses the issue of what will constitute a winning
vote. It states that the threshold for “the unification referendum in
the North is ‘a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll’.
It would breach the Agreement to require a higher threshold than 50% + 1. In
the South, approval of constitutional referendums likewise requires a simple
majority.”
Critically the report authors highlight the danger of any
failure to plan for a unity referendum. They state: “The years of
acrimony following the UK’s vote on EU membership in 2016 illustrate the dangers
of a vote called without adequate planning.” As part of this process
of pre-planning the report calls for Citizens’ Assemblies to be established to
help identify peoples’ views on what choices should be on offer in any
referendum.
It adds: “All these criteria point towards the importance of
advance planning: of the referendum processes; and about the shape of a united
Ireland, or a continued Union.”
Is Micheál Martin listening? This conclusion is in direct
contradiction to his refusal to plan for the time ahead.
Last week Ireland’s Future – an influential group of civic
nationalists –published a discussion document entitled: ‘The
Conversation on Ireland’s Future. A Principled Framework for Change.’ The
paper deals with a series of key questions regarding the unity referendum
process and as part of its launch Martina Devlin interviewed Professor Colin
Harvey of Queens University. The interview is hugely informative and is still
available on https://twitter.com/IrelandsFuture.
And like the report from the Constitution Unit the Ireland’s
Future group “place emphasis on advance planning and the need for an
evidence-based and informed debate. That is why we have suggested an all-island
Citizens’ Assembly to underline the centrality of civic leadership in preparing
the ground for change.”
So, planning for a unity referendum and planning the shape of
the new Ireland that will emerge out of this process should begin now. As
Ireland’s Future say: “There is no contradiction between making the
(Good Friday) Agreement work, in all its parts, and planning for the
referendums that will determine the future of Ireland. Those who continue to
label this process ‘divisive’ and ‘dangerous’ are simply encouraging the spread
of fear and anxiety.”
As part of Sinn Féin’s contribution to this growing debate we
recently published a discussion paper the “Economic Benefits of a United
Ireland.” It addresses many aspects of the current and future economic
direction of Ireland and it specifically punctures the claim that a United
Ireland is not affordable or viable.
Is Micheál Martin listening? I suspect not. He so wrapped up in
a belief of an ‘Ireland’ that stops at the border that he cannot see the
enormous opportunities that will open up for all the people of this island
through reunification. However whatever Martin’s attitude the conversation on
Irish Unity is not going away. The academic papers I have referenced are only
the beginning. They are already seeking public feedback. And they and others
will continue to focus on reunification in the time ahead.
The debate on unity is also being driven by the increasing
realisation that partition has failed the people of the island of Ireland and
by the shambles around Brexit and the recognition that a single island response
to Covid-19 would have saved lives. So, if you believe in a United Ireland – in
a new shared Ireland which embraces every citizen on the basis of equality join
in the conversation. Incidentally I would love to know how the SDLP’s New
Ireland Commission is getting on. Colum Eastwood’s promise to create a forum to
discuss future constitutional arrangements could contribute significantly to
the national conversation. Maybe he will give an update?
Brexit: Deal or no-deal
It’s possible that by the time you read this a deal will have
been done on Brexit. It’s also possible that no deal will have been agreed.
According to the media speculators and commentators this week is
the endgame for the Brexit negotiations. However, they also said that two weeks
ago. A month before that the spin was that the British and EU negotiators
were “down to the wire.” This deal/no-deal crisis has been ongoing
since the 2016 referendum decision by England and Wales to leave the EU. (It
should always be remembered that the North and Scotland voted to remain.)
I have lost track of the number of deadlines that have been
broken this year alone. Two weeks ago the EU gave the British 48 hours to amend
their stance or see the process fail. Then the British threatened to walk away.
Clearly both sides are hard-balling. It’s the sort of negotiating tactics that
successive British governments frequently used during the years of negotiations
leading to the Good Friday Agreement and subsequent agreements.
Two weeks ago queues of trucks stretched for over five miles in
the Kent countryside in south east England trying to travel onto the Continent.
French authorities had decided to dry run new immigration procedures that will
come into effect on 1 January when Brexit officially kicks-in. And
the big issues remain around fishing, governance and state aid to industry.
At the same time there were media reports about the difficulties
the North might face in bringing in food from Britain – particularly unfrozen
mince and sausages. A big argument for carnivores to eat only Irish sausages
and mince. In fact buy Irish all the time. And shop locally.
On Sunday, a British government paper dealing with the “reasonable
worst case scenario planning assumptions” arising from a no deal
outcome were leaked to the media. The 34 page document warns among other things
that if the Brexit talks collapse there could be a reduction in the
availability of medicines; protests and counter-protests will take place; and
there could be "reduced [food] supply availability, especially of
certain fresh products" and "supply of some critical dependencies for
the food supply chain... could be reduced".
Whatever the outcome of these negotiations – deal or no-deal –
the end result will still be bad for the island of Ireland. In a response to
questions from Sinn Féin TD John Brady about the impact of Brexit, and the
British government’s Internal Market Bill which will breach international law,
the Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney acknowledged that along with the
North’s Human Rights Commission, the Irish Human Rights and Equality
Commission, as well as a number of civil society organisations, the Irish
government shares their concerns that the Internal Market Bill risks
undermining the “Good Friday Agreement commitment to ensure
incorporation of the ECHR, and risk diminishing the commitment to ensure there
is no diminution of rights, safeguards or equality of opportunity as the UK
leaves the EU.”
So, the crisis around Brexit heightens; the threat to the Good
Friday Agreement continues; and the conversation around the optimistic outcomes
arising from a United Ireland intensifies.
Billboards for Unity
If you have been driving or walking around Belfast, Derry and
parts of Dublin and other locations around the country in the last week you
will have seen some new billboards and posters proclaiming ‘A New Ireland – A
Time to Plan.’ In Belfast the billboards have been erected at some of the
city’s busiest junctions and video messages spelling out the advantages of
Irish Unity have been posted on social media. Well done to all involved.
The Billboards point to EU membership; Jobs; Prosperity and an
All Island Health Service. Sinn Féin Úachtaran Shinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald put
it will at the weekend when she urged citizens to be “part of this
planning; to be part of making unification a reality. It is our best plan; it
is our best chance; it is our future together.”
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