But
there is much work to be done. Republicans have a responsibility to map out the
kind of shared new Ireland, we are working to build. A key element of any
strategy of persuasion requires republicans address the issues of affordability
and prosperity.
Of
course, there will be some unionists who will remain opposed to unity on
ideological, cultural, or historical grounds. Or for emotional reasons. Some
may also have fears about the future. But there are others who are open to
persuasion that unity makes sense in the context of Brexit. These voices were
heard in the recent Féile debates. These citizens believe in the equal
provision of rights for every citizen. And they are open to positive arguments
around economic growth and greater prosperity.
There
are also some nationalists, north and south, who also aspire to unity but are
nervous, uncertain, and who similarly need to be persuaded. The issue of rights
and the EU will be important for them, but so too is the question of
affordability and prosperity.
The
claim is regularly made that the north’s economy is entirely reliant on ten
billion pounds of a subvention that comes from the block grant from Britain. In
a united Ireland it is claimed that Dublin would have to find this money and
that as a result public services would suffer from cutbacks. This is not true.
The
reality is that since partition decisions taken around the management,
investment and development of the north’s economy were the responsibility of
the Ulster Unionist government at Stormont up to 1972 and subsequently by
British governments. Even under the Executive almost all of the key economic
levers – taxation, welfare, immigration and more – were and are directly
controlled by Westminster.
British
Treasury Figures relating to the north and to the block grant are deliberately
misleading and are purposely used as a source of misinformation to defend the
union with Britain. The British Government claims that it allocated 24bn
(billion) of public spending to the north for the year 2015-16. This
figure is used by political unionism and others to argue that there is a £10bn
deficit.
Of
this 24bn figure 3.7bn is spent on British defence, overseas representation,
and debt. This spending does not relate to the north. It is a matter
for the British state and is not our debt. That leaves 20.3bn.
The
British Government estimates revenue generated within the north at 16.7bn. That
means that the gap between what is spent and what is raised in the north is
closer to 3.6 bn.
In
addition British Government Departments claim that they spend 1.8bn of this on
the north. Aspects of this spending may or may not be considered to
be essential. It is Sinn Féin’s position that this spend cannot fully be
considered to be local debt until it is devolved to local budgets.
Therefore
the local spending deficit - which is the difference between the amount of
money spent and raised in the north by the Executive and local authorities - is
£1.8bn. To summarise, based on official British Treasury information the fiscal
deficit in the north is at most in the range of £1.8bn to £3.6bn.
In
the context of Irish unity, in which the entire island is part of the EU, where
the additional costs relating to the duplication of services are ended and with
Irish control of our economic strategies, investment and growth, it is clear
that Irish unity makes economic sense and is affordable.
Support
for this is contained in peer reviewed paper published in November 2015 by
Professor Kurt Huebner of Vancouver University which is titled ‘Modeling Irish Unification’. It concluded that
Irish unity would likely result in a sizable boost in economic outcomes and
incomes north and South, with the most aggressive unification scenario
estimating a boost in all island GDP of €35.6 billion Euro over eight years.
That’s an increase in each of those years of €5,500 per person north and south.
More
recently in July a report researched by Gunther Thurmann, who worked in
the German Desk for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during German
reunification, along with Senator Mark Daly of the Oireachtas Good Friday
Implementation Committee, entitled 'Northern Ireland's Income and
Expenditure in a Reunification scenario' concluded that the north would cease to be a financial dependency
in the event of a united Ireland. It said that the six counties would save
£8.5bn a year by leaving the British state and uniting with the rest of the
island. This would bring the North close to a balanced budget.
So, it’s all to play for. Achieving a
referendum on Irish unity is no longer a matter of if but when. Winning that
referendum and creating a new, shared Ireland inclusive of every citizen who
lives on this island is similarly no longer a matter of if but when. Our task
as united Irelanders is to achieve these objectives in the shortest possible
time with the maximum level of popular support. That means planning for a
referendum and planning for unity. Now
isn’t that a challenge worth working to achieve?
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